Skype sound configuration under Linux 9.10

Disclalimer: The settings under Ubuntu 9 are markedly different from my earlier post. I’ll try to post an update here with different instructions. The naming convention under Ubuntu 9.10 Koala’s sound mixer appear to be far more straightforward.

Manual gain settings still did better than the default.

The good news is that both Skype and Skype Recorder appear to be working well with fully updated libraries. No need to un-check the upgrades for specific upgrades to preserve Skype function.

60 minutes covers cyberwar

Steve Kroft of 60 minutes covers cyberwar from the perspective of computer network operations and critical infrastructure. It is a welcome change from the usual fare of robotic weapons, web defacement, and online chat group flame wars. The video and transcript are available at 60 minutes. Well worth the watch.

Unilateral trade clusters using raw import flows

This set of dendrograms, again, is based on raw partner import flows from OECD. The dendrograms show complete linkages (all countries in a cluster exceed the threshold value for mutual trade flows), but the dyad is measured by the greater of the two trade flows.

This gallery shows an annual series of dendrograms using that dataset back to 1993.

Bilateral import clusters using raw trade flows

As promised, here are a new round of dendrograms using OECD trade data as a reciprocal distance measure among countries reporting. In trade, relationships matter, and these dendrograms show which relationships matter the most. Clusters are drawn by complete linkages, using the lesser of the two pairwise trade flows (greater notional distance).

The important thing about these dendrograms, relative to the ones posted the last few days, is that they take the raw trade flows themselves–not normalized for population, or total imports, or GDP–as the unit of analysis. This is actually a much more useful picture of trade than the normalized flows, because is suggests which relationships ought to draw the most water in trade politics.

The cluster algorithm isn’t a perfect way to capture the data; a few outliers can skew the presentation of the data somewhat. But it is the only good way I have seen to present cross sections of country-dyad data at a glance. It’s a very useful tool for presentation of descriptive statistics on international trade.

Unilateral import clusters in international trade

As with yesterday, these graphics depict complete clusterings in international trade, treating the partner country’s share of total home country imports as a raw distance measure. The greater the share, the closer the two countries are. For visual clarity, I have used logarithmic scales; so the scale at left doesn’t have any concrete meaning.

The clusters in this dendrogram indicate complete linkages, meaning that all of the country dyads in each cluster share a unilateral import concentration greater than the threshold value for the cluster. At 100% concentration, no country has a partner providing 100% of imports; so all the countries are separate at the bottom of the scale. At 0% concentration, countries all have at least some trade with one another; so one giant supercluster exists at the top of the scale.

Bilateral import clusters in international trade: insights

Major insights from the dendrograms in the previous post:

1. Among OECD countries, New Zealand and Australia cleave closest to the Pacific alliance: NAFTA, Japan and Korea.
2. Scandinavian countries have undergone a durable shift in trade patterns, away from France and the Iberian peninsula, and toward the British Isles.
3. Greece, Italy, and Turkey constitute a durable trade cluster over many years. In the early 1990s this group traded heavily with the UK and Ireland; now more so with central Europe and Switzerland.
4. Dutch trade patterns oscillate more than other countries; suggesting durable, close ties to some member(s) of both the Scandinavian and Mediterranean clusters.

Bilateral import clusters in international trade

One big problem in the visualization of bilateral statistics is that maps don’t work very well.

Dendrograms give a very attractive and intuitive solution to the problem by dispensing with geographic information altogether. The dendrogram shows how clusters of countries form along a continuum of closeness. For international trade, I’ve presented below a cluster analysis of the OECD by share of total imports sourced from the partner country. Here, the linkages are bilateral, meaning that if countries A and B source 10% and 20% of their total imports from one another (respectively), the A-B partnership would join the same cluster at a threshold of 10% of imports.

At the top of the screen (0% of imports), all countries belong to a single supercluster. At the bottom of the screen (100%), no country sources 100% of its imports from any trade partner. Moving up the screen from the bottom, countries join the same cluster when the lesser of their mutual import shares falls above the threshold value. Technical notes below.

Tomorrow, I will post dendrograms for unilateral linkages (essentially the same as above, but using the greater of the two numbers). The following day, I will post dendrograms using the raw import flows, rather than the share of total imports. Following that, expect images depicting GDP weighted import flows. Next week, I will post the same series of images for imports.

Thank you Brian Hasbrouck

You should go check out Brian’s blog, Political Risk Explored. He is currently reading some great books!

• Bremmer and Keat The Fat Tail
• Bremmer The J Curve
• Kindleberger and Aliber Manias, Panics and Crashes
• Bernstein Against the Gods
• Bouchet, Clarke and Groslambert Country Risk Assessment

Nobody else says things this nice about me except on my birthday. Thank you! Seriously, thank you for attending Fletcher’s conference Managing Political Risk 2009.

I also wanted to thank Munish, Benjamin, and Andy for being so nice to me.  I’m happy I came up even though I’m approaching my 23rd hour of straight consciousness and feel sick.  I’ll probably wrap up some of the things I learned on Sunday/Monday after I’ve recovered from the conference and/or weekend!

…

A nice gentleman by the name of Benjamin Mazzotta showed me his desktop picture of the world sized to population.  Awesome. The map (and him).

Three approaches to political risk valuation

1. Ordinal, units-free algorithms. These are systems that train experts to rank abstract political variables across countries. In an ideal world, experts agree on what constitutes a “4″ on an arbitrary 7-point scale. Ultimately it doesn’t matter whether it’s a 7-point or a 20-point scale, until different variables are integrated into a single algorithm. The algorithm assigns weights to different variables. And again, ideally, the algorithm is fitted statistically against the particular type of project the customer has, to be sure that your index is a good predictor of future risks to that firm. Prototype: ICRG model.

2. Actuarial models. These systems rely on expected rates of future events that affect revenue streams to investors. Models in this category seek to measure objective event probabilities and expected losses from those events. These models seek to provide objective forecasts of the specific events that determine cash flows, and recently, the cash flows themselves (rather than the precursor events). These models, unsurprisingly, lend themselves best to insurance and credit products, providing the analysis is sufficiently accurate to permit underwriting over a long time horizon.

3. Threat models. Subjective probability of future events is a different type of analysis from actuarial calculation. Instead of using the past as a reasonably comprehensive guide to future events, threat models look for some combination of threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences. These terms are used with very different, although often precise, meaning by different firms and different industries. Threat models may refer to specific groups of individuals and their capabilities, or to generic motivations for unspecified hypothetical adversaries. Vulnerabilities may refer to the nature of the firm’s project, or in IT security, the comprehensive IT systems and policies designed to protect assets, or to the likelihood that an attack will be successful if attempted. These probabilities are subjective in that they describe the behaviors of actors with free will in a competitive, strategic, adversarial game with the firm. In the language of Knightian uncertainty, these probabilities attempt to quantify uncertainty and not risk.

Political risk advising: core business

More from Fletcher / CEME / Exxon Mobil conference Managing Political Risk 2009.

Question from the audience: what ultimately separates political risk advising firms from general management consulting firms with global reach? Six replies, paraphrased here.

1. Clients ask for cogent, insightful analysis of context for global context.
2. Key regulatory and due diligence requirements.
3. Firms provide certification of due diligence.
4. Strategic advice for how to level the playing field.
5. Attention to the difficult, expensive local information; not what the newspapers say, but what is going on behind closed doors. Early warning and strategic advice regarding corruption and invisible local relationships.
6. Business practices and norms in a new environment.
7. Many firms mentioned the specific leverage that FCPA has over American firms, and any publicly traded in USA.